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Aljassmi, H, Han, S and Davis, S (2014) Project Pathogens Network: New Approach to Analyzing Construction-Defects-Generation Mechanisms. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Casanovas, M d M, Armengou, J and Ramos, G (2014) Occupational Risk Index for Assessment of Risk in Construction Work by Activity. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Chang, C (2014) Principal-Agent Model of Risk Allocation in Construction Contracts and Its Critique. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Choi, S, Kim, D Y, Han, S H and Kwak, Y H (2014) Conceptual Cost-Prediction Model for Public Road Planning via Rough Set Theory and Case-Based Reasoning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

González, P, González, V, Molenaar, K and Orozco, F (2014) Analysis of Causes of Delay and Time Performance in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Laryea, S and Lubbock, A (2014) Tender Pricing Environment of Subcontractors in the United Kingdom. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Ling, F Y Y, Ke, Y, Kumaraswamy, M M and Wang, S (2014) Key Relational Contracting Practices Affecting Performance of Public Construction Projects in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Narbaev, T and De Marco, A (2014) Combination of Growth Model and Earned Schedule to Forecast Project Cost at Completion. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Ning, Y and Ling, F Y Y (2014) Boosting Public Construction Project Outcomes through Relational Transactions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Panas, A and Pantouvakis, J P (2014) Simulation-Based and Statistical Analysis of the Learning Effect in Floating Caisson Construction Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Rosenfeld, Y (2014) Root-Cause Analysis of Construction-Cost Overruns. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Sun, C, Mackley, A and Edara, P (2014) Programmatic Examination of Missouri Incentive/Disincentive Contracts for Mitigating Work Zone Traffic Impacts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Syal, M, Duah, D, Samuel, S, Mazor, M, Mo, Y and Cyr, T (2014) Information Framework for Intelligent Decision Support System for Home Energy Retrofits. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Yang, I, Lin, Y and Lee, H (2014) Use of Support Vector Regression to Improve Computational Efficiency of Stochastic Time-Cost Trade-Off. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

Zhang, S, Du, C, Sa, W, Wang, C and Wang, G (2014) Bayesian-Based Hybrid Simulation Approach to Project Completion Forecasting for Underground Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(01).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Forecasting; Simulation; Bayesian analysis; Underground construction; Excavation; Hybrid methods; Forecasting; Simulation; Bayesian analysis; Underground construction; Excavation; Cost and schedule;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000764
  • Abstract:
    Real-time simulation is powerful in forecasting the completion probability of long-term projects with repetitive tasks but fails to consider the time-varying uncertainty of inputs caused by construction process variabilities. In this paper, an improved method is introduced for predicting the time-varying probability of project completion of ongoing underground cavern group projects using Bayesian updating techniques. Within a tailor-made hierarchical simulation model, the Bayesian approach is adopted to constantly update duration distributions of unfinished project activities according to onsite data. The probability of project completion can therefore be increasingly refined during the process. The methodology is further explained in a case study where its feasibility and advantage over traditional approaches are verified. The success may also be replicated in addressing other similar time-varying uncertainty issues inherently present in almost all construction projects.